Day reads · Wed, 21 Oct, 2026 · NIFTY futures
2026-10-22 ›Failed open drive turns into a trend day down, leaving a double distribution and lower value
NIFTY futures drove up at the open to 23135, the prior value high, but B gave back the whole move, and the IB low broke at 11:30 into a 472-point trend day down that closed near the low. The upside drive failed just under prior supply, and those buyers had to exit, so sellers controlled every later period except a late buying tail.
Day type
trend
Open
open drive
In control
sellers
Range
472.5pt · closed on the low
Session map ⓘEach bar is a 30-minute TPO period (A = 09:15), coloured by Dalton activity against yesterday's value. Shaded: today's value area and nearby prior supply / demand. Hover a bar for its numbers.
Initiative buyingAn up period above yesterday's value — buyers taking new groundResponsive buyingAn up period below yesterday's value — buyers responding to low pricesInitiative sellingA down period below yesterday's value — sellers taking new groundResponsive sellingA down period above yesterday's value — sellers responding to high pricesRotationNo clear direction, or inside yesterday's valueToday's value area▲▼ Large prints (1)Large prints: 500+ lots in one ~2s poll. ▲ buyer-initiated, ▼ seller-initiated (inferred). Hover one for whether the book followed and the OI read. Information only — not shown to predict price.
How the day unfolded
- Open drive up, fully rejected · A–B · 09:15–10:15A drove up from inside prior value to 23135 on a quarter of the day's volume, then stopped and left a selling tail. B reversed the whole drive down to the IB low at 22938.8. The morning VWAP was already lost inside the IB, so the up attempt was dead before the IB was set.
- Balance at the IB low · C–D · 10:15–11:15Two quiet periods rotated just above the IB low on shrinking volume. Buyers could not reclaim the morning VWAP, and the market paused, coiling at the edge.
- IB low breaks, fast leg down · E–F · 11:15–12:15E broke below the IB low with initiative selling under prior value, and F carried it to 22760. Both periods left single prints, the mark of a one-sided move with no two-sided trade. Prior demand from 2026-10-15 offered no support.
- Lower distribution builds · G–K · 12:15–14:45The market slowed and built a second, lower distribution around 22725, but kept stepping to new lows. A large buy print near 22745 just before J was absorbed, and J and K still made new lows.
- Buying tail, close near POC · L–M · 14:45–15:30L made the low at 22662.5 and was rejected there by responsive buying, leaving a small buying tail. M drifted back to close at 22730.1, right at the new POC and near the session low.
Why it happened
The failed open drive released sellers
Buyers who drove the open were trapped once the IB low gave way. Their exits fed the sellers, which is why the break ran so far, so fast.
OPEN_DRIVE up failed at 11:30, accepted below IB low 22938.8 (fail price 22910); move after 247.5 pts in 198 min to 22662.5
Prior supply capped the open
The drive stalled at the prior day's value high, just under the prior selling tail. The other timeframe sold there again, and the excess at the top marks a finished auction.
High 23135 = prior VAH 23135; 20 pts under the 2026-10-19 selling tail 23155–23185; selling tail excess 23115–23140
Initiative selling below prior value
Once price left prior value, sellers were the ones initiating, while buyers only responded once, late. Range extension on one side only and a close near the low show who owned the day.
Initiative selling 5 periods vs buying 0; extension down 276.3 pts, none up; close location 0.14, below VWAP 22901.1; volume 1.26x median
Value migrated lower through prior demand
The market did not just probe lower; it built value there. It traded through two earlier demand zones and confirmed acceptance out of the multi-day balance below.
POC −305 pts (23030→22725); value OVERLAPPING_LOWER; 2026-10-15 singles 22810–22900 and tail 22675–22765 traded through; L2 22985–23145 accepted down on 2026-10-21
Larger timeframe still points up
The swing and 10-day migration are still up, so the day is a sharp break inside a larger up swing, and the system's top-down read was split. The low stopped well above the older demand at 22370–22560.
LTF migration +349, swing UP, slope +44.4/session; read NEUTRAL (ltf +1, value −1, initiative −1); flip level 22484.99; low 102.5 pts above the 2026-10-13 tail
What this day teaches
From failed moves come fast moves
The open drive up failed at the IB low, and the market fell 247.5 more points in just over three hours.
An initiative open must hold its own VWAP
The drive lost its morning VWAP of 23060.4 inside the IB, an early sign that the buyers had no follow-through.
Single prints separate rejected value from accepted value
The two single-print zones split the day into an upper distribution that was abandoned and a lower one where the market built its POC.
All facts
| Session | O 23004 · H 23135 · L 22662.5 · C 22730.1 · VWAP 22901.1 |
| IB | 22938.8–23135 (196.2pt) |
| Extension | ↑0 · ↓276.3 from E |
| Open | open drive · inside value |
| Activity | IB 0 · RB 1 · IS 5 · RS 0 · rotation 6 |
| Volume | 1.26× the 10-session median |
| Value | 22675–22985 · POC 22725 · double distribution |
| Extremes | high excess (25pt tail) · low excess (15pt tail) |
| Single prints | 22800–22825, 22865–22935 |
| Value vs prior | overlapping lower · POC −305pt |
| Morning VWAP | 23060.4 · up attempt lost it in the IB |
| Failed move | open drive up failed 11:30 at 22910 → 247.5pt in 198 min |
| Swing VWAP | 22783.7 from the low 22271 (2026-10-08) · up · price below |
| Longer timeframe | up (+349pt) |
| L2 | 22985–23145 · accepted down |
| L3 | 23418–23646 · accepted down |
| Large prints | 13:42 BUY 625 @ 22744.7 · absorbed · short covering → reversed · OI −620 → −117 lots |
| Prior zones | 22810–22900 single prints (10-15) · demand · traded through |
| 23155–23185 selling tail (10-19) · supply · untouched (closest 20pt) | |
| 22675–22765 buying tail (10-15) · demand · traded through | |
| 22370–22560 buying tail (10-13) · demand · untouched (closest 102.5pt) |
| Reference | Price | From close |
|---|
Limits: One-timeframing was not computed (null), so the read of how steadily sellers stepped lower rests on the period lows alone. · The large print's side is inferred, and its short-covering OI read reversed within 10 minutes.
Built 22/10/2026, 07:32:57 · claude-opus-5-5
Educational only. Facts are computed by fixed rules from the session's futures data and written up by an AI model, published without review. They describe what the market did; they name no trades, levels to act on or expectations for the next session. Not investment advice — see the disclosures below.